Two wins, closed today
Today, 28 October, we sold two of the model portfolio’s positions at a profit.
PTC went at $194.10, a gain of 40.5% on the $138.12 we paid in September. When we bought it, our research dive valued it at $224 a share by 2028 in the base case and $301 in the best case, more than double what we paid, because the market had sold it off on the fear that AI would replace design software, and the business itself was still growing its recurring revenue about 9% a year. Eight days after the dive, Schneider Electric agreed to buy the whole company for $205 a share in cash. That offer now sets the price: the shares cannot go to our $224 while a buyer is paying $205, so what is left is about 6% while the deal waits for a shareholder vote and the regulators, with the close expected by the third quarter of 2027. That is close to what Treasury bills pay, with the risk of a big fall if the deal breaks, so we took the 40.5%.
Accenture went at $245.58, a gain of 77.4% on the $138.40 we paid in July, in our first research dive, when the market was selling consulting firms on the same AI fear. When I re-ran the numbers in October, after its results, the highest value I could make a case for was $233, and the shares had already gone past it, while the company’s own guidance for this year is 3% to 6% growth with about 2.5 points of that coming from acquisitions.
You can follow how the whole model portfolio is doing against the S&P 500 here, updated after every US close: https://ai.shikshannivesh.com/p/the-model-portfolio
What we bought today
More Boston Scientific at $41.48, after its third quarter results. The full reasoning is in next part. Compare it with Medtronic and Abbott
More Uber at $65.15, before its results on 4 November. The shares are at a one-year low on worries about robotaxis, and in September the chief executive and the chief operating officer both bought shares above this price.
Broadcom, new, at $346.62, on a short note with no dive yet. AI chip revenue grew 221% last quarter, and we kept the position small because Broadcom lends money to one of its own large AI customers.
We made the same two buys in our live portfolio, Boston Scientific for the first time and more Uber. You can follow it here: https://ai.shikshannivesh.com/live-family-portfolio
Follow earnings season on greeksoup.ai
About 1,000 US companies report their results over the next two weeks, and greeksoup.ai, the equity research platform we are building, shows who reports each day and what each one delivered against a year ago, as it comes out. It is free to use, and the full launch is very soon: https://greeksoup.ai/stocks/us/results/